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Are You Ready to List Your Home?

Buyers Are Looking Now. Are You Ready to List Your Home? | Simplifying The Market

Are you ready to list your home?

Inventory on the market today is low, especially among existing homes in the entry and middle-level tiers of the market. It is hovering well below the 6-month supply typically found in a more normal market, as shown in the graph below: Buyers Are Looking Now. Are You Ready to List Your Home? | Simplifying The MarketWith inventory being one of the biggest housing market challenges today, finding a starter home right now isn’t easy. According to the Q3 Housing Trends Report from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), 68% of those searching for a home think their search will get harder or stay about the same over the next 12 months. The same study reveals,
“In Qtr3’19, buyers actively engaged in the process of buying a home are more likely to have spent at least 3 months searching (58%) than a year earlier (55%).”
 This is certainly no surprise, given the current inventory status. So, what’s the good news? The NAHB continues to say,
“If still unable to find a home in the next few months, the next step for most long-time searchers is to continue looking for the ‘right’ home in the same preferred location (52%). The next step for 35% is to expand their search area and for 16% is to accept a smaller/older home. Only 15% will give up looking.”

What does this mean for homeowners?

 If you’re thinking of selling your home, buyer demand is high – and those looking in your neighborhood aren’t planning on giving up anytime soon. The majority of potential buyers who are still searching for their dream home are eager, willing, and ready to buy, so maybe it’s time to list your house and make your move.

Bottom Line

With buyer demand as high as it is today, and inventory in the entry and middle-tier markets remaining low, it’s never been a better time to move up. Let’s get together to determine if now is your time to sell your home and move onto the next chapter of your life!

Home Supply vs Buyer Demand?

  The latest edition of the Realtors Confidence Index from NAR sheds some light on the relationship between seller traffic (supply) and buyer traffic (demand). Until the supply of homes for sale starts to meet buyer demand, prices will continue to rise. The price of any item is determined by supply, as well as the market’s demand for the item. The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) surveys “over 50,000 real estate practitioners about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions” for their monthly REALTORS Confidence Index. Their latest edition sheds some light on the relationship between home supply vs buyer demand.

Buyer Demand

The map below was created after asking the question: “How would you rate buyer traffic in your area?”How Does the Supply of Homes for Sale Impact Buyer Demand? | Simplifying The MarketThe darker the blue, the stronger the demand for homes is in that area. The survey shows that in 3 of the 50 U.S. states, buyer demand is now very strong; only 2 of the 50 states have a ‘weak’ demand. Overall, buyer demand is slightly lower than this time last year but remains strong.

Home Supply

The index also asked: “How would you rate seller traffic in your area?”How Does the Supply of Homes for Sale Impact Buyer Demand? | Simplifying The MarketAs the map below shows, 18 states reported ‘weak’ seller traffic, 29 states and Washington, D.C. reported ‘stable’ seller traffic, and 3 states reported ‘strong’ seller traffic. This means there are fewer homes for sale than what is needed to satisfy the buyers looking for homes.

Bottom Line

Looking at the maps above, it is not hard to see why prices are appreciating in many areas of the country. Until the supply of homes for sale starts to meet buyer demand, prices will continue to increase. If you are debating listing your home, let’s get together to capitalize on the demand in our market now.

Housing Supply Not Keeping Up

Housing Supply Not Keeping Up with Population Increase | Simplifying The Market Many buyers are wondering where to find houses for sale in today’s market with the housing supply not keeping up with demand. It’s a true dilemma! We see an increase in demand, but the housing supply available for purchase just isn’t keeping up. The number of new housing permits issued prior to the great recession increased for 15 years until 2005 (from 1.12 million in 1990 to a pre-recession peak of 2.16 million in 2005). According to Apartment List,
From 1990 to 2005, the number of single-family permits issued more than doubled, while the number of multi-family permits grew by 49 percent.
When the housing market crashed, the number of new homes permitted decreased to its lowest level in 2009 (see below):Housing Supply Not Keeping Up with Population Increase | Simplifying The MarketSince then, supply and demand have been out of balance when it comes to new construction. According to the same report,
Construction of single-family homes has recovered much more slowly — the number of single-family housing units permitted in 2018 was barely half the number permitted in 2005.”

Why is new construction so important?

As the U.S. population increases, there is also an increase in the need for new homes. Today, new construction is not keeping up with the increase in the nation’s population. The report continues:
“The total number of residential housing units permitted in 2018 was roughly the same as the number permitted in 1994, when the country’s population was 20 percent less than it is today.”
Essentially, the dip in home building coupled with the steadily increasing U.S. population means there is now a selling opportunity for homeowners willing to list their current houses.

Bottom Line

If you’re considering selling your home to move up, now is a great time to get a positive return on your investment in a market with high demand. Let’s get together to determine the specific options available for you and your family.

Why All the Chicken Littles Should Calm Down

Why All the Chicken Littles Should Calm Down | Simplifying The Market The U.S. Census Bureau recently released their 2019 Q2 Homeownership Report. Some began to see the sky falling, believing the report showed Americans may be stepping back from their belief in homeownership. The national homeownership rate (Americans who owned vs. rented their primary residence) increased significantly during the housing boom, reaching its peak of 69.2% in 2004. The Census Bureau reported that the second quarter of 2019 ended with a homeownership rate of 64.1%, which is down from the 64.8% rate for the fourth quarter of 2018. Based on this news, some started to question the consumer’s belief in the idea of homeownership as a major part of the American Dream.

Everyone Calm Down…

It is true the homeownership rate did fall. However, if you look at the national rate over the last 35 years (1984-2019), you can see that the current homeownership rate has returned to historical norms. The 64.1% rate is equivalent to the rates in 1984 and 1994.Why All the Chicken Littles Should Calm Down | Simplifying The Market

What Will the Future Bring?

Part of the reason the homeownership rate slipped is a lack of inventory available for purchase for first-time home buyers. The demand is there, but currently, the supply is not. It seems, however, that is about to change. In a recent report, Ivy Zelman explained that builders have finally started to increase the number of homes they’re constructing at the lower-end price points:
“Robust growth in the entry-level price point of late should translate to a reacceleration in homeownership rates moving forward.”

Bottom Line

Today, the homeownership rate sits at historic norms. In all probability, it will increase as more inventory becomes available. There is no reason for concern.

Why is Housing Inventory Up With Sales Down?

Why Has Housing Supply Increased as Sales Have Slowed Down? | Simplifying The Market According to the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the inventory of homes for sale this year compared to last year has increased for the last four months, all while sales of existing homes have slowed compared to last year’s numbers. For over three years leading up to this point, the exact opposite was true; Inventory dropped as sales soared. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shed some light on what could be contributing to this shift,
“This is the lowest existing home sales level since November 2015. A decade’s high mortgage rates are preventing consumers from making quick decisions on home purchases. All the while, affordable home listings remain low, continuing to spur underperforming sales activity across the country.”

Let’s take a deeper look:

Interest Rates

Since January, 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates have increased nearly a full percentage point (from 3.95% to 4.9%). Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the National Association of Realtors, and the Mortgage Bankers Association are all in agreement that rates will continue to increase to about 5.2% over the next 12 months.
“The rise in [mortgage] rates paired with this very strong price appreciation absolutely is slowing housing,” said Fannie Mae’s Chief Economist Doug Duncan.
Even though rates are higher than they’ve been in a decade, they still remain below the average for the 1970s, 80s, 90s, and 2000s!

Mismatch of Inventory

Elizabeth Mendenhall, President of NAR, said it best, “Despite small month over month increases, the share of first-time buyers in the market continues to underwhelm because there are simply not enough listings in their price range.” Prices of starter and trade-up homes have appreciated faster than their higher-priced counterparts. Over the last 5 years, the lowest-priced homes have appreciated by 47% while the highest-priced homes have appreciated by only 24%. According to the Institute of Luxury Home Market’s Luxury Market Report, the $1M-and-up price range is now experiencing a buyer’s market. This means that supply (inventory) has finally caught up with demand and buyers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to negotiations. Additionally, many listings in this price range have experienced price cuts in order to entice buyers to put in offers.

Natural Disasters

Although not fully to blame for the national shortage in sales and inventory, natural disasters like Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Michael, and the wildfires on the West Coast have certainly had an impact.

Bottom Line

Additional inventory coming to market could help normalize the housing market and allow incomes to catch up to home prices. For more information about sales and inventory in your area, let’s get together so we can help you make the best decision for you and your family.  Call or text me today! P.S. See a list of Nassau County and Suffolk County towns as inventory has changed from December 2017 to December 2018, Not every town has seen an increase - Click here.